Posts Tagged ‘portfolio’
A simple way to arrive at the right asset allocation for your portfolio
What’s your piece of the pie?
Instant asset allocation
Asset allocation can be as complicated as you want to make it. But since many investors don’t have time to get overly complex about assets in their portfolios, here’s a simple look at how to allocate.
Financial planners used to say subtract your age from 100:
- The remaining percentage is what you should have in stocks
So, if you’re 30, keep 70 per cent of your portfolio in stocks. If you’re 70, keep 30 per cent in stocks.
The best asset allocation for your age
Canadians can look forward to living longer. Because we’re living longer, we have to take this into consideration when it comes to our portfolios. Some recommendations are suggesting the number used should be increased to 110 or 120 minus your age reflecting our greater longevity.
If you’re living longer, you need to make your money last longer. You’ll need the extra growth that stocks can deliver.
Many experienced investors find that adjusting the number to suit their risk tolerance after a large correction, say, like 2008-2009, a good metric. Large corrections can get you in touch with your investor psyche pretty quickly. But be cautious about selling when the mood has reached maximum pessimism. It rarely turns out well.
In “Plan like a pension fund manager when it comes to your investment portfolio”, I discussed the benchmark for the average diversified fund manager. The important thing is to choose an asset allocation you think you can be comfortable with.
For example, if you had a 50/50 portfolio split, you could expect that your stock holdings would move a lot less than a broad index like the S&P/TSX 60 in Canada, or the S&P 500 in the U.S. While you may be tempted to think it’ll move half of one of these indices, it will depend on how close the equity component of your portfolio correlates to either of these indices. If your stock allocation is geographically diversified, this will also change things.
When you compare the S&P/TSX 60 (60 of the biggest companies in Canada) with a balanced fund that is geographically diversified, we’d expect, generally, to see:
- Less volatility because of the fixed income component in the balanced fund
- Less volatility because of the geographic diversification in stocks and bonds in the balanced fund
This is exactly what happens when you graph the S&P/TSX 60 and the Claymore Balanced Growth Core Portfolio (TSX:CBN). The Claymore portfolio is based on the Sabrient Global Balanced Growth Index. Roughly an 80/20 balance between growth and income-oriented ETFs holding stocks and bonds.
The S&P/TSX 60 shows more volatility than the Claymore ETF. There are reasons for this.
The S&P/TSX 60 is made up of sixty of the biggest stocks in Canada – one country with a big presence in financials, energy and materials.
The Claymore ETF is geographically diversified. It holds stocks from all over the world. It also has a fixed income component. Its equity and fixed income allocations are further diversified. They hold different investments that perform somewhat differently depending on market/economic conditions.
What investors have to remember is that while volatility is reduced when fixed income products are added to a portfolio, it also reduces the upside of the portfolio when markets turn around. A geographically diversified portfolio with fixed income products added into the mix isn’t going to perform as aggressively as the broader stock market.
Most investors can tolerate less upside for less downside. As we’ve recently seen, it’s the drops that make people a little shaky in the knees.
Remember, should you want even less exposure to stock, there are plenty of products out there that are closer to a 60/40 split between equities and fixed income.
Asset allocation is going to affect performance and risk. You can always use systems (like the simple ones above) to come up with a benchmark for your portfolio, but in the end, your portfolio’s going to be slightly different because it won’t have exactly the same investments.
Opportunity abounds in down markets. Part of the opportunity of market volatility is figuring out your risk tolerance. If this last correction gave you palpitations, maybe you have too much stock.
But consider:
- The markets have corrected. This graph is from September 2010 to September 2011. If you sell investments now, you may be selling near the bottom.
- Having an asset allocation system in place is going to be the best benchmark for rebalancing your portfolio. If you haven’t had such a system in place, think, and act now.
There may be opportunity out there. In fact, the last few days in the markets have seen some extraordinary upward movements in equities. September is often the cruelest month in markets, but October has ended a lot of bear markets historically. Bad news travels fast and furious, yet the sounds of optimism often appear within the pessimism and noise.
*ETFs used here are for illustrative purposes
Part Two — Get the balance right
Can we simplify asset allocation?
Yes, we can.
Watch out for rebalancing fever
It’s possible to get rebalancing fever. Be careful. Like all manias, there are dangers. If you start rebalancing your portfolio every time there’s a slight move, you may find you have no more time for anything else – not to mention creating potential tax liabilities.
In “Let’s think about assets” I also discussed rebalancing. A five per cent portfolio drift is a good measure of when you need to act. The time frame for a five per cent change in your stock or bond allocation depends on markets and economic conditions, investor sentiment and the ever-changing universe of moving parts and multiple players in a global economy. It’s a fluid investing universe.
Automatic for the people
The key with asset allocation is to make it automatic. The sun will rise. The sun will set. Investors rebalance their portfolios.
Eliminating emotion from your rebalancing philosophy makes it more effective. When you rid yourself of the “noise”, you can gain focus, discipline and the ability to implement.
Check your portfolio at least once a year. If you do, you should be able to catch when your portfolio needs rebalancing. When your allocation has strayed enough, rebalance. During times of great volatility, like this past August, have a peek to see if your allocation has moved enough.
Do your emotions get the best of you? Stick to looking at the percentages of your different allocations rather than the dollar values of investments. Market corrections and severe volatility have a way of making investors, especially novice investors, weak in the knees.
Discipline
There is one overarching rule to rebalancing:
• Stick with your plan
Once you have decided on a plan of action, abandoning your strategy makes it useless. So why do so many investors flee their plans when the going gets tough? Because they’re allowing emotion to eat into their strategy. Often, the cause is assessing yourself as a more aggressive investor than you really are.
Everyone is superhuman when there’s no kryptonite around.
What’s an investor to do?
Use market corrections to re-evaluate your risk tolerance. Corrections are opportunities. Not only do they show who you really are as an investor, but they reveal inevitable bargains.
Remember, assessing yourself openly and honestly as an investor is very important. After all, this is a conversation with yourself (and your advisor, if you use one).
In the end, every investor has to take a certain amount of responsibility for their investment decisions. We should expect good counsel, transparency and best practices, but we are the best evaluators of ourselves – especially during market volatility. The financial crisis and the resulting market drop clearly demonstrated that many investors couldn’t take the heat. That’s okay.
Know thyself. Then move forward from there.
When it all comes down to it, remember, if you’ve been sitting in GICs for the last few years, you have missed out. (See “Bonds: Why you should love the unloved investment”)
Invest in You Inc.
The thing some investors miss when they rebalance their portfolios is that rebalancing really is taking stock of you. When the media becomes shrill and volatility is very high, this is a strong signal to look in the investment mirror and ask:
• Who am I?
• What’s going on?
• Where are the opportunities?
All we are is all we are
No one ever knows exactly what the markets are going to do. Rarely are great opportunities uncovered by knee-jerk reactions to our most basic fears. We are who we are. But we can all step back from ourselves, think, and reflect:
Fear is a great motivator, but so is stepping outside of fear and looking out at opportunity. Opportunity is like a good neighbour. Often, the potential for good fortune knocks at the door in an unusual form. It’s up to us to recognize it.
Meanwhile, there may be shrill voices on the street and much gnashing of teeth.
Part One is here.
Find out more: Asset Allocation can be easy as A, B, C
Part Two — Bonds: Why you should love the unloved investment
Count bonds. Forget about sheep.
In the two years before the financial crisis, government bonds underperformed. Stock markets were hitting all-time highs and few investors were interested in bonds. However, as the risk premium for stocks was rising and stock indices in Canada and the U.S. were hitting highs, shrewd investors were reallocating their portfolios to include more bonds.
Bonds were unloved, but they were cheap, and when stock markets came down in a hurry, bonds acted like the buffers they are: they rose while stocks were coming down in portfolios.
The case for bonds in a portfolio as a permanent asset seems pretty solid. Let’s take a look at the last six months.
Over the last six months, stocks have finally gone into a correction. Stocks have been incredibly buoyant since the bottom of the 2009 crisis and have performed very well. But corrections are a normal part of the investing landscape. Corrections are healthy since they clean out the speculative element in the market periodically. Investors, on the other hand, especially average investors, aren’t huge fans of volatility.
Looking at the chart over the last six months, we can see that government bonds turned up as the markets headed down. Bonds are doing what they do, once again: smoothing out returns by acting like insurance in your portfolio.
Equities hit home runs, but bonds keep you from crashing into the catcher’s mitt and getting called out at the plate.
Equities should outperform bonds in the next few years because bonds have made out well recently, but good diversification together with prudent asset allocation suggest the average investor should have some bonds in the asset mix. Recent news has shown us how commodities and stock markets can change direction in a hurry.
The debt situations in Europe and the U.S. illustrate the importance of having Canadian bonds in a diversified portfolio. Canadian bonds are in a good place when it comes to quality these days. Just when many were saying Canadian bond returns had peaked and there was no future investing in them, boom, sovereign debt issues exploded in the media – again. Both recent history and the last few days are excellent reminders of why bonds have a place in the average investor’s portfolio.
Canadian government bonds may not work in a get-rich-quick scheme, yet when it comes to your portfolio, it pays to think. Think of bonds as insurance. Think of bonds before you go to sleep. In times of volatility, count bonds and forget about the sheep.
Part One is here.
Update: Foreign investors are also loving the unloved investment in Canada.
Bonds: Why you should love the unloved investment
Over the last couple of years bonds have been unloved. Interest rates have bottomed. Equities are historically cheap. The economy’s getting better.
Why debate any of the above? Surely, there’s some truth to these statements, and if you pay any attention to the financial news, you’ve heard them all.
Despite the lack of love for bonds, here are some reasons to hold bonds close to your heart through thick and thin, but especially through thin.
In 2009, when it seemed the earth had opened up and was swallowing investors and their portfolios whole, what did bonds do? They did what they’re supposed to do. Bonds acted like investment insurance. Bonds digested the increasingly bad news and turned that news into concrete returns. Interest rates plunged as governments moved to respond to economic fears, some rational, others less so.
Bonds or GICs?
The chart compares the Dex All Government Bond Index with 1-year GICs. Over three years, the bond index outperformed GICs by about 14 per cent. That’s roughly seven times the return. If you were invested in an ETF or a mutual fund holding Canadian government bonds, you would have made out well. And your investment would have been more liquid since GICs generally tie-up your money for the period you’ve agreed to invest for.
Stocks or bonds?
Over four years, if we compare bonds and stocks using the Dex Bond Index and the S&P TSX 60 Total Return Index, which includes dividends, we see that bonds outperformed. Of course, considering that the correction of 2009 was one of the deepest since the depression era, this isn’t much of a surprise. Bonds returned about 22 per cent while the S&P TSX 60 returned about three per cent over that period. It was an excellent period of outperformance for bonds.
The last few years, the financial media has been full of stories about why bonds won’t be the best of investments in the future. True. Bond prices are historically high at the moment, but every story should include that bonds tend to insure a portfolio – and they should always be part of a proper portfolio. Because they outperform, as demonstrated by the charts, when the stock market gets beaten down (see the financial crisis of 2009), bonds should always have their place in your portfolio.
No bonds? Your tolerance for risk had better be high. Bonds outperform when times are tough, and as bond assets rise they take some of the edge off the equities that are falling in your portfolio.
Why does this bond outperformance happen? Because during tough times, investors put their money in high quality investments like government bonds. Governments also tend to lower interest rates during times of financial turmoil. When interest rates go down, bonds become more valuable because the rates of interest they pay are more valuable when compared to new issues carrying lower interest rates. And that’s exactly what happened over the last four years. Bonds went from underperforming equities to outperforming them as jittery investors jumped into the asset class, and governments lowered interest rates in order to provide liquidity during the crisis.
Want to see a great infographic about bonds? (Somewhat U.S.-centric but still educational.)
Stay tuned for Part Two.
Infographic: mint.com
Goliath gets a dose of realism: Does the average investor understand how Nasdaq’s re-evaluation of Apple’s weighting could affect markets?
Nasdaq had to reshuffle. It hadn’t touched weightings since 1998. Nasdaq decided it’s not in investors’ interests to have one holding representing over 20 per cent of the index. And it’s right, such an over-weighting doesn’t represent an investors’ best interests.
It’s been said before, and it’ll be said again, one company’s over-weighting in an index counters the principles of proper asset diversification. Think Nortel and what happened when it was hugely dominant in the Canadian stock market. When Nortel got crushed in the tech bubble so did Canadian investors — many watched their portfolios bomb.
Investors have definitely benefited from Apple’s meteoric rise over the last few years, however, at some point, rational thinking has to prevail. Do you really want the extra risk associated with an enormous weighting?
How many investors buying the Nasdaq know how overweight Apple is? In slashing Apple’s weighting about 8 per cent down from 20 per cent, Nasdaq’s doing the responsible thing.
Apple has been getting an enormously disproportionate share of the market due to its dominance of the Nasdaq. Apple’s been profitable but so have other companies. In comparison, Microsoft, posting profitable quarter after profitable quarter, hasn’t been getting its due. And it pays a dividend!
Perception often rules over reality in the markets. But reality often comes back with a smack.
In the short-term, there will definitely be re-weightings of Nasdaq stocks in portfolios the world over. These re-weightings should benefit Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle and Intel. Apple stock should experience some interim pressure as managers adjust their portfolios over the next month.
What the future holds is as yet unwritten, yet Nasdaq’s re-weighting of the benchmark will be a wise long-term move for the index.
While the Nasdaq is nowhere near the valuations of the tech bubble, Apple has done almost nothing but go up since the financial crisis. However, during the volatility of the crisis, it got hammered.
Portfolio managers are measured against the indices that are their benchmarks. A benchmark should never be overweight one stock. It forces managers who want to compete with the index to buy more of the very stock they should be cautious about.
Here’s a graph and story of what happened to the Nasdaq after the tech bubble, when mania overcame rational, strategic thinking.
Asset allocation: Diversification is king
The king and you
Invest in different asset classes, across geographies, sectors and styles, and the impact of any one investment on your portfolio is diminished. Most investors, especially new investors, worry about poor performance but forget about the importance of diversification.
For example, if your only investment is your house, then you’re not very diversified. Ask anyone who was overloaded in U.S. residential real estate about how lack of diversification can negatively affect your portfolio.
These days diversifying is easier than ever. You can invest in real estate, international stock and bond markets, emerging markets and commodities. You don’t have to simply depend on domestic stock and bond markets as much as investors once did.
But what is important is considering the risk/reward features of these asset classes. You don’t want to invest too little or too much in any one asset.
The challenge of asset selection
The number of investments available today is truly staggering. Individual stocks and bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and managed accounts are only a few of the types of investment options. If you want to manage risk well, you have to evaluate how each investment will impact your portfolio.
Benchmark indices help financial professionals gauge the performance of their assets under management. Some investments are designed to very nearly track these indices. Many exchange-traded funds seek to offer investors nearly the same performance as indices.
Individual securities or actively managed funds hold out the potential to outperform the indices they are based on. However, these investments rarely do outperform. And they often carry higher risk and higher management fees that are a detriment to an investor’s overall portfolio depending on the extent of an investors understanding of markets, and the level of advice she may need.
Determining the level of risk you are comfortable with is crucial. Mixing index and active investments into your portfolio will benefit you when it comes to the end result of achieving your objectives.
Rebalancing
Rebalancing your investments is key. Periodically, investors should review their portfolios and re-assess their investments and long-term goals. Often, this requires selling your best-performing investments along with the discipline to execute your plan.
“Buy low and sell high” may be the mantra investors want to follow, but for many, it’s easier said than done. Risk management best practices suggest that an investor must pay just as much attention to selling high as buying low. Getting overly greedy after a good run in the markets is dangerous to your portfolio.
By rebalancing, you can stay on track. Proper asset allocation helps you stick to your risk/return objectives. Although this sounds easy on paper, it’s not. Systematizing the rebalancing process is one of the most important processes of a sound investment plan.
How to be a smarter investor
Most people obsess about investment performance. While tracking the performance of your investments is without a doubt important, are you considering risk?
Investors generally understand risk. For example, not meeting investment goals stands out as a hazard when it comes to portfolios. But without risk, there is no return. You have to take some risk to earn better-than-average returns.
So, how should you consider risk? How does risk fit into your portfolio? If risk and reward are so heavily correlated, how much should you be taking? How can you manage risk properly?
Understand risk
What is risk, anyway?
You can’t control everything. The recent market meltdown was out of investors’ control. But how you organize your portfolio is within your control. And that’s empowering.
Most Americans investing in residential real estate didn’t think they were taking on a lot of risk. Yet U.S. residential real estate dropped by about 50 per cent from its peak. You definitely increase your risk with all your eggs in one basket. But you can manage risk. You can create less uncertainty and the stronger probability of meeting your investment goals.
Are you taking on too much risk? Is there overlap in the securities or funds you hold? You think you’re well-diversified, but are you really? On the other hand, if you’ve been holding only low-risk, low-return investments like GICs over the last ten years, you might feel sorry. Why? Because if you held a basket of Canadian financials (even with two major stock market corrections), you would still come out ahead. Yes, risk offers the potential for higher returns. However, you need to determine what the appropriate amount of risk in your portfolio is.
In order to create an intelligent investment plan, you need to evaluate your risk tolerance. You need to ask yourself questions like … How much risk are you willing to take? Is a very conservative strategy going to allow you to achieve your investment goals? Research shows that being too conservative also entails risk when it comes to achieving portfolio goals. Risk is not only about aggressive investments. Conservative investments carry risk, too.
Risk, by any other name, is still risk
Risk can take many shapes and forms. Do you have the right investments? Are you being too aggressive? Or maybe you’re not being aggressive enough? The best way to consider risk is by having a sound investment plan.
Considerations for your investment plan
• Asset allocation
• Choosing assets that will make up your allocation
• Rebalancing your portfolio
In an upcoming post, I will discuss the above fundamentals.
What the heck is a TFSA, anyway?
It never surprises me when I hear someone say they don’t really understand certain investment or savings vehicles. After all, there are a couple of them out there. So, what is a TFSA, and what are its advantages to you?
A Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) is a flexible savings vehicle. It is a general purpose vehicle allowing Canadians to earn tax-free investment income. That’s right. I said “tax-free”. The TFSA was established to facilitate lifetime savings needs. It compliments existing plans such as the Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSP) and the Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP).
Here are some details from the government’s website:
How the Tax-Free Savings Account Works
- Canadian residents age 18 or older can contribute up to $5,000 annually to a TFSA.
- Investment income earned in a TFSA is tax-free.
- Withdrawals from a TFSA are tax-free.
- Unused TFSA contribution room is carried forward and accumulates in future years.
- Full amount of withdrawals can be put back into the TFSA in future years. Re-contributing in the same year may result in an over-contribution amount which would be subject to a penalty tax.
- Choose from a wide range of investment options such as mutual funds, Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) and bonds.
- Contributions are not tax-deductible.
- Neither income earned within a TFSA nor withdrawals from it affect eligibility for federal income-tested benefits and credits, such as Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement, and the Canada Child Tax Benefit.
- Funds can be given to a spouse or common-law partner for them to invest in their TFSA.
- TFSA assets can generally be transferred to a spouse or common-law partner upon death.
How can you argue with tax-free income?
For more information, visit the government’s webpage:
There are a lot of misconceptions about the TFSA. Many don’t know that you can basically hold anything in your TFSA that you can hold in your RRSP.
Here’s a recent discussion from the Financial Post.
Enjoy!