Posts Tagged ‘investment risk’
Part Two — Get the balance right
Can we simplify asset allocation?
Yes, we can.
Watch out for rebalancing fever
It’s possible to get rebalancing fever. Be careful. Like all manias, there are dangers. If you start rebalancing your portfolio every time there’s a slight move, you may find you have no more time for anything else – not to mention creating potential tax liabilities.
In “Let’s think about assets” I also discussed rebalancing. A five per cent portfolio drift is a good measure of when you need to act. The time frame for a five per cent change in your stock or bond allocation depends on markets and economic conditions, investor sentiment and the ever-changing universe of moving parts and multiple players in a global economy. It’s a fluid investing universe.
Automatic for the people
The key with asset allocation is to make it automatic. The sun will rise. The sun will set. Investors rebalance their portfolios.
Eliminating emotion from your rebalancing philosophy makes it more effective. When you rid yourself of the “noise”, you can gain focus, discipline and the ability to implement.
Check your portfolio at least once a year. If you do, you should be able to catch when your portfolio needs rebalancing. When your allocation has strayed enough, rebalance. During times of great volatility, like this past August, have a peek to see if your allocation has moved enough.
Do your emotions get the best of you? Stick to looking at the percentages of your different allocations rather than the dollar values of investments. Market corrections and severe volatility have a way of making investors, especially novice investors, weak in the knees.
Discipline
There is one overarching rule to rebalancing:
• Stick with your plan
Once you have decided on a plan of action, abandoning your strategy makes it useless. So why do so many investors flee their plans when the going gets tough? Because they’re allowing emotion to eat into their strategy. Often, the cause is assessing yourself as a more aggressive investor than you really are.
Everyone is superhuman when there’s no kryptonite around.
What’s an investor to do?
Use market corrections to re-evaluate your risk tolerance. Corrections are opportunities. Not only do they show who you really are as an investor, but they reveal inevitable bargains.
Remember, assessing yourself openly and honestly as an investor is very important. After all, this is a conversation with yourself (and your advisor, if you use one).
In the end, every investor has to take a certain amount of responsibility for their investment decisions. We should expect good counsel, transparency and best practices, but we are the best evaluators of ourselves – especially during market volatility. The financial crisis and the resulting market drop clearly demonstrated that many investors couldn’t take the heat. That’s okay.
Know thyself. Then move forward from there.
When it all comes down to it, remember, if you’ve been sitting in GICs for the last few years, you have missed out. (See “Bonds: Why you should love the unloved investment”)
Invest in You Inc.
The thing some investors miss when they rebalance their portfolios is that rebalancing really is taking stock of you. When the media becomes shrill and volatility is very high, this is a strong signal to look in the investment mirror and ask:
• Who am I?
• What’s going on?
• Where are the opportunities?
All we are is all we are
No one ever knows exactly what the markets are going to do. Rarely are great opportunities uncovered by knee-jerk reactions to our most basic fears. We are who we are. But we can all step back from ourselves, think, and reflect:
Fear is a great motivator, but so is stepping outside of fear and looking out at opportunity. Opportunity is like a good neighbour. Often, the potential for good fortune knocks at the door in an unusual form. It’s up to us to recognize it.
Meanwhile, there may be shrill voices on the street and much gnashing of teeth.
Part One is here.
Find out more: Asset Allocation can be easy as A, B, C
Get the balance right
Can we simplify asset allocation?
Yes, we can.
While there may be more to asset allocation than just stocks and bonds, stocks and bonds are the best starting points for most investors. Anyone can become an investor through mutual funds or ETFs.
What have most investors heard about stocks?
• Stocks usually outperform bonds over long periods of time
Ok, now, in this hypothetical, let’s imagine that stocks take longer than average for that outperformance to take place. What can we do to bolster our portfolios?
If we find ourselves in a period where equities take longer to outperform than average, we can arrive at two conclusions:
• Fixed income positions (bonds) are even more important
• Rebalancing is even more important
Why?
Because, although a 100 per cent portfolio of stocks should statistically outperform over the long-term, most investors are more human than they are instruments of logic. People are emotional. Since they’re emotional, what is theoretically true about investing may not hold true in real life.
Volatility takes its toll. Big market drops herald big investor reactions. When bad news reaches a fever pitch about stock markets, many investors start to feel ill. Investors start abandoning strategy and discipline.
After all, there’s Europe, a potential recession, inflated house prices in Canada, and a blue sky that’s sure to fall. (Never mind that equities haven’t been this cheap in quite a while.)
The only things that have really changed are the names of the crises. Not to belittle the difficulties we face economically – these are challenging times – but we’ve always faced difficulties economically. With market corrections, and, with prudent planning, difficulties become opportunities.
Seeing the opportunity in today’s markets may be better than running around screaming the sky is falling.
If your portfolio has a good allocation to fixed income products – if you have a mix you’re comfortable with – and you have a disciplined rebalancing strategy, you should benefit. There are times when stocks and bonds move up or down at the same time, but usually, stocks and bonds move in opposite directions.
If your allocation is 65 per cent equity (stocks) and 35 per cent fixed income (bonds), then when your allocation drifts, let’s say to 70 per cent equity and 30 per cent fixed income, it’s time to rebalance.
What do you need to do? Sell some stocks and buy some bonds. Sell the asset class that has outperformed, and buy the asset class that has underperformed.
Sell high. Buy low.
Everyone knows that, right? But it takes great discipline to do. You have to automate the process.
Some investors worry that they’ll impede portfolio performance by selling stocks when they seem to be doing nothing but going up. True. This happens. Your allocation may change early in a bull market. But many investors struggle seeing future benefit in the face of the madness of crowds. The “noise” affects their focus and their resolve. It can make investors buy at the wrong time or sell at the wrong time. In down markets, too many investors only see current losses or declines.
What might be the best rebalancing schedule theoretically, may not work for the average investor struggling to cope with “noise” during a market correction, especially, if it’s a severe correction like 2008-2009.
While the financial crisis may have caused some grey hair, it was one of the best times in recent memory to test out your portfolio. Recent weeks also put some pressure on investor nerves while squeezing portfolio integrity.
It’s times like 2008 – 2009 that make people happy to own bonds. Bonds performed very well as stocks declined. Stocks usually outperform bonds over the long-term, but bonds add some insurance to your portfolio.
As the market began the steepest part of its recent decline, we can see that bonds once again outperformed as investors positioned themselves for safety. The steady income from bonds and the hedge they provide against market drops often make them fund manager favourites.
Why should the average investor be any different?
Part Two is here.
Part Two — Bonds: Why you should love the unloved investment
Count bonds. Forget about sheep.
In the two years before the financial crisis, government bonds underperformed. Stock markets were hitting all-time highs and few investors were interested in bonds. However, as the risk premium for stocks was rising and stock indices in Canada and the U.S. were hitting highs, shrewd investors were reallocating their portfolios to include more bonds.
Bonds were unloved, but they were cheap, and when stock markets came down in a hurry, bonds acted like the buffers they are: they rose while stocks were coming down in portfolios.
The case for bonds in a portfolio as a permanent asset seems pretty solid. Let’s take a look at the last six months.
Over the last six months, stocks have finally gone into a correction. Stocks have been incredibly buoyant since the bottom of the 2009 crisis and have performed very well. But corrections are a normal part of the investing landscape. Corrections are healthy since they clean out the speculative element in the market periodically. Investors, on the other hand, especially average investors, aren’t huge fans of volatility.
Looking at the chart over the last six months, we can see that government bonds turned up as the markets headed down. Bonds are doing what they do, once again: smoothing out returns by acting like insurance in your portfolio.
Equities hit home runs, but bonds keep you from crashing into the catcher’s mitt and getting called out at the plate.
Equities should outperform bonds in the next few years because bonds have made out well recently, but good diversification together with prudent asset allocation suggest the average investor should have some bonds in the asset mix. Recent news has shown us how commodities and stock markets can change direction in a hurry.
The debt situations in Europe and the U.S. illustrate the importance of having Canadian bonds in a diversified portfolio. Canadian bonds are in a good place when it comes to quality these days. Just when many were saying Canadian bond returns had peaked and there was no future investing in them, boom, sovereign debt issues exploded in the media – again. Both recent history and the last few days are excellent reminders of why bonds have a place in the average investor’s portfolio.
Canadian government bonds may not work in a get-rich-quick scheme, yet when it comes to your portfolio, it pays to think. Think of bonds as insurance. Think of bonds before you go to sleep. In times of volatility, count bonds and forget about the sheep.
Part One is here.
Update: Foreign investors are also loving the unloved investment in Canada.
Goliath gets a dose of realism: Does the average investor understand how Nasdaq’s re-evaluation of Apple’s weighting could affect markets?
Nasdaq had to reshuffle. It hadn’t touched weightings since 1998. Nasdaq decided it’s not in investors’ interests to have one holding representing over 20 per cent of the index. And it’s right, such an over-weighting doesn’t represent an investors’ best interests.
It’s been said before, and it’ll be said again, one company’s over-weighting in an index counters the principles of proper asset diversification. Think Nortel and what happened when it was hugely dominant in the Canadian stock market. When Nortel got crushed in the tech bubble so did Canadian investors — many watched their portfolios bomb.
Investors have definitely benefited from Apple’s meteoric rise over the last few years, however, at some point, rational thinking has to prevail. Do you really want the extra risk associated with an enormous weighting?
How many investors buying the Nasdaq know how overweight Apple is? In slashing Apple’s weighting about 8 per cent down from 20 per cent, Nasdaq’s doing the responsible thing.
Apple has been getting an enormously disproportionate share of the market due to its dominance of the Nasdaq. Apple’s been profitable but so have other companies. In comparison, Microsoft, posting profitable quarter after profitable quarter, hasn’t been getting its due. And it pays a dividend!
Perception often rules over reality in the markets. But reality often comes back with a smack.
In the short-term, there will definitely be re-weightings of Nasdaq stocks in portfolios the world over. These re-weightings should benefit Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle and Intel. Apple stock should experience some interim pressure as managers adjust their portfolios over the next month.
What the future holds is as yet unwritten, yet Nasdaq’s re-weighting of the benchmark will be a wise long-term move for the index.
While the Nasdaq is nowhere near the valuations of the tech bubble, Apple has done almost nothing but go up since the financial crisis. However, during the volatility of the crisis, it got hammered.
Portfolio managers are measured against the indices that are their benchmarks. A benchmark should never be overweight one stock. It forces managers who want to compete with the index to buy more of the very stock they should be cautious about.
Here’s a graph and story of what happened to the Nasdaq after the tech bubble, when mania overcame rational, strategic thinking.
RESPs for the educated mind
Strategy. Strategy. Strategy.
You have watched your child grow and develop. You can’t believe it, but your little bundle of joy has grown up, has her own opinions and philosophies and is now ready to embark on one of her greatest adventures. Higher education. Goodbye high school. Hello post-secondary education.
Remember your own first year in university or college? Everything looked so big … How could you possibly get from one end of the campus to the other in five minutes? The excitement … The feeling of learning and collaborating … And now, it’s your own child ready to swing the door open to a whole world of possibilities. Immensely proud, you have some small, nagging worries about your child getting a great education and a smooth path into the future.
You have planned for this, though. Long ago, you established a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP). And now, that long-term thinking is about to pay off. You might think your financial planning and strategy for you child’s education is done …
Think again.
Did you know that the way money is withdrawn from an RESP is enormously important? Strategizing doesn’t end now – it evolves.
Just like that little baby that grew into a teenager ready to take on the world.
- Limit withdrawals – Remember the government … The government limits the withdrawal of RESP income and Canada Education Savings Grant funds including the CES Grant. Government restrictions on a maximum of $5,000 in the first 13 weeks of your child’s program, might leave you searching for extra funds, tempting you to grab some extra cash from the RESP to add to the $5,000. Avoid this redemption, if possible. Think long-term. Investing is often about deferring tax. Redeeming early undermines a registered plan’s tax-deferred growth potential just as leaving college or university early may limit your child’s future possibilities. Even worse, if the program doesn’t qualify, you’ll have to repay a portion or the entire CES grant!
Wait a minute … Didn’t you start this plan to give your child an advantage?
Yes. And knowledge will help you graduate RESP complexities with honours.
- Get permission for an early withdrawal – And get it in writing. You can exceed the $5,000 limit on the withdrawal of RESP earnings by requesting permission in writing from the Minister of Human Resources. Avoid withdrawing plan capital (and a repayment of CESG funds), but make your request early. By making the request as soon as you can, you’ll get a timely response and be able to determine if this plan works for you before school begins.
The government could request a payback …
- Strategic withdrawals avoid paybacks – The government may ask you to pay them back the CESG grant money if they see earnings remaining in the plan after your child graduates or leaves school. Avoid the potential CESG payback, be sure to use the plan’s earnings before withdrawing contributions.
Part Two is here.